Why I Believe Fundamentals Win | Jason Redekopp
My Crypto Thesis

Crypto is maturing.
My thesis is changing with it.

I still love upside. I still want asymmetric returns. But as crypto grows up, I think the best opportunities increasingly come from assets attached to something real: revenue, users, institutional access, open networks, useful infrastructure and narratives that can grow into actual businesses.

I want speculation with something underneath it.
01 · Company Economics Revenue + Users VVV / Venice AI
02 · Institutional Distribution ETF + Network Usage Solana
03 · Open Infrastructure AI + Open Network TAO / Bittensor
The Big Shift

From stories to businesses, networks and infrastructure.

Early crypto could move almost entirely on narrative. I don't think that disappears. I do think the bar gets higher as the asset class matures.

1

Real users

I want products people actually use — not a roadmap explaining why users might arrive someday.

2

Real economics

Revenue, fees, cash flow, token burns or other measurable economic activity give a thesis something tangible underneath the narrative.

3

Real distribution

ETFs, exchanges, wallets and institutional products make an asset easier for entirely new pools of capital to own.

4

Real optionality

Open networks can create new businesses, products and markets that were never part of the original valuation.

Why This Matters

The easy-money phase of crypto won't last forever.

A maturing market doesn't mean there is less upside. It means I think the market increasingly separates assets that have a reason to exist from assets that only have a reason to trade.

Narrative still matters

Crypto is reflexive. Attention, momentum and stories can move markets enormously. I am not pretending fundamentals replace narrative.

But narrative needs support

My favourite setup is a powerful story attached to something measurable: users, revenue, transactions, integrations, developers or institutional demand.

Capital gets more selective

As institutions enter and the market gets larger, I expect more investors to ask what an asset actually does, who uses it and how value accrues.

Quality can still be asymmetric

A project doesn't need to be a tiny meme coin to produce huge upside. A real business or network can still be dramatically undervalued relative to what it could become.

My Filter

What I want underneath the token.

I don't need every investment to check every box. But the more boxes it checks, the more interested I become.

01

Users

Is anybody actually using the product, network or protocol?

02

Revenue

Is economic activity being generated — and does any of it accrue back to the asset?

03

Distribution

Can new capital access it easily through exchanges, ETFs, wallets or institutional rails?

04

Use case

Does the token or network solve a problem beyond simply existing as a tradable asset?

05

Narrative

Is the asset positioned inside a trend large enough to attract attention and capital?

06

Open ecosystem

Can outside developers build on it and create value the original team never planned?

07

Value capture

If the product succeeds, is there a credible mechanism for the token to benefit?

08

Room to grow

Is the current valuation still small relative to the opportunity I think it can address?

Example One · VVV

What if the crypto token is attached to a real AI company?

Venice is one of the clearest examples of why this category interests me.

VVV

Venice AI

Users + revenue + AI narrative + token economics

Venice is a private, uncensored AI platform offering text, image, video and other model access through a consumer product and API. Venice says the platform has more than 2 million users worldwide.

The part that really gets my attention is that this isn't simply "AI coin" branding. Venice generates platform revenue, and its stated VVV model uses platform revenues to buy and burn VVV.

Real user base Millions of people already use the underlying AI product.
Revenue connection Platform revenues are used in Venice's VVV buy-and-burn model.
Huge narrative AI remains one of the largest technology investment themes in the world.
Actual product Venice isn't waiting to invent its use case. The product exists now.
The distinction matters:

VVV is not equity in Venice. Owning the token is not the same thing as owning shares in the company. My thesis depends on how successfully token economics continue to connect platform success back to VVV.

Example Two · Solana

What happens when crypto gets institutional distribution?

Solana represents a very different kind of thesis: a large, active network becoming easier for traditional capital to own.

SOL

Solana

Network usage + institutional access + ETF distribution

To me, the importance of Solana ETFs isn't simply that another ticker exists. It is that traditional investors can gain exposure through the same brokerage and portfolio infrastructure they already understand.

The Bitwise Solana Staking ETF launched in the U.S. in October 2025 and attracted hundreds of millions of dollars in its first week. Since then, the Solana ETF category has expanded further.

Institutional rails ETFs reduce the friction for advisers, funds and traditional investors to get exposure.
Existing network Solana is not an ETF wrapped around an empty idea. It has a large developer and user ecosystem.
Staking economics Some ETF structures can incorporate staking, making Solana different from a purely passive commodity exposure.
Distribution can compound Easier access can create a much larger potential buyer base without changing the underlying network.
What I like:

The ETF doesn't create Solana's utility. It creates distribution for something that already has utility. That is a much more interesting setup to me.

Example Three · TAO

What if the network itself becomes the AI marketplace?

TAO is the most speculative of these three examples — and potentially the most asymmetric if the decentralized AI thesis becomes real at scale.

TAO

Bittensor

Open-source AI + subnets + incentives + permissionless innovation

Bittensor is designed as an open network where participants compete to provide useful machine intelligence and other digital resources. TAO is the economic layer that rewards contributions across the network.

What makes it compelling to me is the subnet model. Instead of betting on one AI company to invent every product, Bittensor lets independent teams build specialized markets for intelligence, data, compute and other machine-learning services.

Open network Anyone can build, compete and create new subnets rather than waiting for one central company.
Economic incentive TAO rewards participants according to how the network values their contributions.
AI narrative The network sits directly inside the long-term growth of artificial intelligence.
Optionality New use cases can emerge from independent developers, which means the opportunity set can expand over time.
The risk is equally real:

Open networks are messy. Incentive design, concentration, subnet quality and whether useful economic demand develops all matter. TAO's upside thesis is powerful precisely because the outcome is not yet obvious.

Three Different Kinds of Conviction

I don't value VVV, SOL and TAO the same way.

They are interesting to me for completely different reasons.

1

VVV · Company economics

Users, a functioning AI product, revenue and an explicit token buy-and-burn connection.

Business thesis
2

SOL · Distribution + network effects

An established crypto network gaining easier access to traditional pools of capital.

Adoption thesis
3

TAO · Open infrastructure

A permissionless economic network trying to become infrastructure for decentralized AI.

Optionality thesis
The Sweet Spot

Narrative + fundamentals is where I want to be.

The biggest mistake would be thinking I am suddenly looking for boring value stocks with a blockchain attached.

Big story

AI, high-performance blockchains and institutional adoption are narratives capable of attracting enormous capital.

$

Real economics

Revenue, fees and token-value mechanisms can give investors something more concrete to measure.

Users

Products and networks become harder to dismiss when real people already depend on them.

Distribution

ETFs, major exchanges and familiar investment wrappers expand the universe of possible buyers.

Open development

Permissionless ecosystems can create products and value that no central roadmap could predict.

Asymmetric upside

The opportunity is finding assets whose current valuation still fails to reflect what the underlying business or network could become.

What I Avoid

A token is not a business model.

Mature crypto still leaves plenty of room for speculation. I just want to know what I am actually speculating on.

Fake revenue

Incentives can create activity that disappears the moment token rewards stop. I care about whether users would stay without being paid.

Users without value capture

A product can be incredibly popular while the token captures almost none of the economic upside. Those are two separate questions.

Narrative without product

"AI + crypto" on a website is not enough. I want to understand what the network or product actually does.

Tokenomics that fight investors

Unlocks, inflation, emissions and insider allocations can overwhelm a good story if new supply arrives faster than real demand.

My Take

The next crypto winners may look more like businesses and infrastructure.

I don't think crypto becomes less exciting as it matures.

I think the exciting part changes.

The first era rewarded simply being early to the idea of digital assets. The next era may reward being early to the assets that actually become part of the financial system, AI economy and digital infrastructure.

That's why I keep coming back to examples like VVV, Solana and TAO.

One gives me a connection to a real AI product with users and revenue. One gives me a heavily used blockchain with growing institutional distribution. One gives me an open network trying to build an entirely new market for machine intelligence.

Give me a huge narrative — but give me users, economics, distribution or utility underneath it.

That, to me, is where some of the best risk/reward in a maturing crypto market may live.

Don't just ask: “Can this token pump?”

Ask what it owns, what it powers, who uses it, how money flows through it, and what happens to the token if the underlying network actually wins.

Important:This page reflects my personal framework for thinking about crypto and is provided for general educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial, investment, tax or legal advice.References to VVV, Solana, TAO or any other digital asset are examples of the types of projects I personally find interesting. They are not recommendations to buy, sell or hold any asset.Revenue, user growth, ETFs, network activity and real-world utility do not guarantee token price appreciation. Token economics, competition, regulation, execution, dilution and market conditions can all materially affect outcomes.Cryptocurrency and digital assets involve substantial risk. Always do your own research.