Rules for the
Bull Market.
Bull markets make people feel smarter than they are. These are the rules I use to keep conviction, greed, FOMO and risk from all getting mixed together at the worst possible time.
Know what you believe before the market starts screaming at you.
A thesis does not guarantee you are right. It gives you something rational to measure against when price, headlines and social media start trying to make every decision for you.
Write it down before you need it.
What do you think is driving the cycle? Which sectors, networks or assets benefit if your thesis is right? What would make you change your mind?
If the only reason you own something is because it is going up, you do not have a thesis - you have momentum. Momentum can be powerful, but it can disappear a lot faster than conviction.
Simple enough to remember when things get crazy.
The original list is intentionally blunt. I have expanded each one just enough to make the rule useful without turning it into a textbook.
Have a thesis.
Know why you are invested, what you expect to happen and what would prove you wrong. Price alone is not a thesis.
Keep most of your capital in the thesis.
My framework is roughly 75% in spot or very low leverage around the ideas I have the highest conviction in. The goal is to participate in the cycle without needing every candle to go my way.
Give speculation a boundary.
I leave roughly 25% for dopamine, leverage and shiny objects. I know I am going to want to take a swing occasionally, so I would rather define the sandbox before emotion defines it for me.
DYOR. Always.
Understand the tokenomics, market cap, unlocks, liquidity, team, product, narrative and risk. A confident person on X is not due diligence.
No FOMO. The next bus will be here in five minutes.
There will always be another setup, another pullback, another asset and another narrative. Missing one trade is cheaper than buying the top because you could not stand watching it leave without you.
Do not rush. The tortoise beat the hare.
Bull markets reward patience more than people think. You do not have to catch every move. You need to avoid blowing yourself up before the bigger moves arrive.
You are trading against yourself more than anyone else.
Greed, fear, overconfidence and comparison are usually bigger threats than the person on the other side of the trade. Most screenshots are useless context - and some are fake.
Take profits out of crypto.
A profit is not truly useful until some of it leaves the casino. Pay yourself. Move money to cash, debt reduction, real assets or whatever matters in your actual life.
Stay humble. No flashing.
Markets can give back months of gains in a weekend. Quiet wealth is still wealth. The goal is not to impress strangers - it is to finish the cycle with more than you started with.
Conviction first. Fun second.
This is not a universal allocation rule. It is simply the mental framework I use to stop speculative trades from quietly becoming the whole portfolio.
The thesis bucket
Spot or very low leverage. High-conviction positions. Assets I am prepared to hold through volatility because I understand why I own them.
The dopamine bucket
Higher risk, new narratives, leverage or shiny objects. The important part is that the risk stays contained.
A bull market is only useful if you keep some of it.
Getting in is exciting. Getting out is where a lot of people discover they never had a plan.
Do not let your portfolio become a scoreboard.
At some point, numbers on a screen have to turn into something real. Take profits in stages. Reduce risk as the market becomes more euphoric. Do not wait for one perfect top that only becomes obvious after it is gone.